A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
